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Policy & Law

Comparing Corn Production Costs and Returns in the United States and Brazil

Brazil’s rise in corn production is reshaping global competition for U.S. producers. This analysis compares corn production costs, revenues, and profitability between Iowa and Mato Grosso farms from 2020–2024, highlighting how Brazil’s second-crop corn system lowers fixed costs while exposing farmers to greater fertilizer dependence and weather risk.

Commodity Prices at the Crossroads: Trade Policy, the Iran Conflict, and the 2026 U.S. Grain Markets

Three forces interact to shape the 2026 commodity price outlook: (1) the trade policy headwind created by tariffs and retaliatory measures that suppress the transmission of supply tightening into higher U.S. export prices; (2) a biofuel demand tailwind that works through domestic markets and is strengthened by elevated oil prices and renewable fuels policy; and (3) the emerging El Niño climate pattern that elevates production uncertainty in both the U.S. and global crops.

Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil: Risks from the Middle East Conflict

With renewed tensions in the Middle East and concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizer markets are once again under pressure. In this episode of Commercial AgBriefs, Joana Colussi compares fertilizer supply and demand trends in the U.S. and Brazil over the past five years and explains how dependent each country remains on imported nitrogen, phosphate, and potash.

Middle East Conflict Revives Concerns Over Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil

Four years after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, which pushed fertilizer prices to historic highs, the current conflict in the Middle East has once again brought attention to the risks associated with dependence on imported fertilizers for agricultural production. With Iran restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route linking the Persian Gulf to global export markets, major supply disruptions have been affecting the United States and Brazil – the world’s two largest country-level fertilizer importers. This article compares fertilizer supply and demand trends over the past five years in both countries, analyzing the scale of their external dependence and the potential implications for agricultural competitiveness.

The March 2026 Producer Price Index: Reading the Food Price Pipeline

The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects Producer Price Index (PPI) prices on the Tuesday of the week containing the 13th of each month. The March survey date was March 10. The Iran conflict began on February 28, making March 10 exactly ten days post-onset. The February survey date was February 10 — eighteen days before the conflict began – but well within the window of pre-conflict rhetoric and US troop buildup in the region.

The March 2026 CPI Report: What It Tells Us About the Iran Conflict’s Inflation Footprint — And What Is Still Coming

The March 2026 CPI report confirms what the structural analysis predicted: the Iran Conflict’s initial consumer price impact is concentrated in motor fuels, which respond to crude oil prices with almost no lag. The 0.9 percent monthly CPI increase is large by recent standards — the largest monthly increase since mid-2022, but it is not yet the broad-based food and goods inflation that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption will eventually produce.

The Iran Conflict, Energy Prices, and U.S. Farm Profitability: A Balanced Assessment

The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s traded oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow. Within days, Brent crude oil surged from roughly $70 per barrel to over $110, the highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gasoline prices at the pump rose roughly 17 percent in the first two weeks of the conflict, and diesel — the lifeblood of farming operations — followed closely.

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026

The U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to grow slowly, primarily due to slower consumer spending growth. Unemployment should remain around 4.6%, as the growth in job openings matches the growth in job searchers. Inflation is likely to hold steady near 2.5%, due to lower oil prices and slower growth in housing costs. Tariffs will add to goods inflation. The Federal Reserve may make further modest reductions in the federal funds rate, leading to somewhat lower interest rates. Barring unexpected shocks, the outlook is for another year of slow expansion rather than recession.

Learning International Economics the Hard Way

U.S. trade policy is being made without even a textbook understanding of International Economics. The policies of 2025 will largely continue in 2026, hurting export-oriented agriculture and eroding U.S. standing in the world.

Is There a Future for the U.S. Farm Bill?

The U.S. Farm Bill, as we typically think of it, remains in limbo. Changes to major spending programs on commodities and SNAP were incorporated into the 2025 budget reconciliation act, while remaining programs were left to end-of-year extensions. The uncertainty about returning to a normal farm bill process, coupled with rapidly adjusting trade policies, makes government action a significant source of uncertainty for U.S. agriculture.

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