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Farmer sentiment weakens amid rising concerns of a cost-price squeeze

Ag Barometer Outlook Farmer sentiment weakens amid rising concerns of a cost-price squeeze. (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/James Mintert).

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded a drop in producer sentiment in October, down 3 points to a reading of 121. The modest drop was part of a three-month slide for the index primarily due to producers’ weakened perceptions for both current and future conditions in the production agriculture sector. The Index of Current Conditions was down 5 points to a reading of 140, while the Index of Future Expectations fell 2 points to a reading of 114. The Ag Economy Barometer is calculated each month from 400 U.S. agricultural producers’ responses to a telephone survey. This month’s survey was conducted Oct. 18-22.

“Recent weakness in farmer sentiment appears to be driven by a wide variety of issues, with concerns about input price rises topping the list,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Rapid run-ups in input prices, especially fertilizer for crop production, are giving rise to concerns among producers about their operating margins weakening. Livestock producers are also concerned about a cost-price squeeze, especially in the pork and dairy sectors.”

Producers’ view of their farms’ financial situation was less optimistic in October compared to September. The Farm Financial Performance Index declined 6 points to 104 in October. Over half (51%) of producers in the survey said they expect input prices to rise 8% or more in the coming year, and one-third of producers said they expect those prices to rise by 12% or more. While the dramatic rise in fertilizer prices that’s taken place in recent months is a key factor, rising input costs also extend to other inputs such as seed, pesticides, machinery repairs and ownership costs, leading farmers to become increasingly concerned about a cost-price squeeze on their operating margins, Mintert said.

Rising input costs are starting to have a dampening effect on expectations for farmland cash rental rates. In October, the percentage of corn and soybean producers expecting higher farmland rental rates in 2022 compared with 2021 dipped to 43%, down 7 points from September, with more respondents expecting rates to remain unchanged in the coming year. Despite these concerns, producers remain bullish on farmland values. The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index set a new record high this month with a reading of 161, 2 points, while the short-term index rose 1 point to 156.

Tight machinery inventories continue to hold back producers’ machinery investment plans. Nearly four of 10 respondents said their purchase intentions were impacted by low farm machinery inventory levels. Even so, the Farm Capital Investment Index improved modestly in October, up 3 points to a reading of 46. Even with that rise, however, the index was still 50% lower than it was at the beginning of the year. Weaker construction plans among producers this month also weighed on the investment index as the percentage of producers planning to increase building and grain bin construction on their farms fell to 10% in October compared with 13% in September.

Over the past year, there’s been little change in producers’ awareness of carbon capture opportunities on their farms. Just 29% of respondents in the October survey said they were aware of opportunities to receive payments to capture carbon on their farms, on par with survey results from last winter and spring. Of those aware of the opportunities, just over 2% said they had discussed carbon capture payments with any companies, compared with 5% last winter and spring.

Read the full Ag Economy Barometer report at https://purdue.ag/agbarometerThe site also offers additional resources – such as past reports, charts and survey methodology – and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars.

Each month, the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture provides a short video analysis of the barometer results. For even more information, check out the Purdue Commercial AgCast podcast. It includes a detailed breakdown of each month’s barometer, in addition to a discussion of recent agricultural news that affects farmers.

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.

About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture

The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University’s Department of Agricultural Economics, the center’s faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today’s business environment.

About CME Group

As the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com) enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest ratesequity indexesforeign exchangeenergyagricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex® platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world’s leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. With a range of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing services through Traiana.

CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. BrokerTec, EBS, TriOptima, and Traiana are trademarks of BrokerTec Europe LTD, EBS Group LTD, TriOptima AB, and Traiana, Inc., respectively. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and S&P are service and/or trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC, Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and S&P/Dow Jones Indices LLC, as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

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