Food Prices – 2026

As we head into 2026, food prices in the United States have stabilized compared to a few years ago, but uncertainty and the cumulative effects of past inflation persist. While inflation has moderated from its 2022 peaks, food inflation ticked up slightly in 2025 relative to the previous year. Higher food inflation in 2025 contributed to slightly higher food insecurity, as rising food prices put pressure on lower-income households.

Food prices rose by rose by 3.1% in 2025, much lower than the 11.8% inflation we experienced in 2022 but slightly higher than the 1.8% inflation in 2024 (see Figure 1). Prices of Food at Home (FAH, or groceries) rose by 2.3% in 2025, while prices for Food Away from Home (FAFH, or food service, including restaurant meals) rose by 4.0%.

Figure 1

Year-on-Year Changes in the Consumer Price Indexes for Food, Food at Home, and Food Away from Home

Source: authors’ calculations from Bureau of Labor Statistics data

Specifically, beef prices have emerged as a particular concern, rising 16% from September 2024 to September 2025 (Figure 2). This substantial increase is driven by persistently low cattle inventories, which are projected to reach a multidecade low of 86 million head in 2025—the lowest level since 1951. According to the USDA’s livestock production outlook (https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2025/march/livestock-production-cycles-affect-long-term-price-outlook-for-cattle-hogs-and-chickens), low supplies in 2026 are projected to drive cattle prices to record highs. This represents the peak of the cattle cycle, after which prices are expected to decline through 2031 before beginning to climb again. High retail beef prices could persist for several years as domestic cattle inventories gradually rebuild. Consumers can expect continued upward pressure on beef prices throughout 2026 and into the near term, with some relief potentially arriving in the late 2020s as herd sizes recover.

In contrast, prices for other protein staples have remained more moderate. Pork, poultry, and dairy products continue to show more stability, with smaller price increases compared to beef, reflecting less-constrained supply in those segments.

For import-dependent specialty items, recent tariff policy discussions have introduced some uncertainty. Historically, commodities like coffee, bananas, and cocoa—which are heavily imported and tariff-sensitive—could see price relief if tariff implementations avoid or exempt food imports. For instance, global coffee prices have experienced volatility due to production challenges in Vietnam and Brazil, but tariff policies could either alleviate or exacerbate retail price pressures, depending on final implementation details.

Figure 2

Price Changes in 2025

Source: authors’ calculations from Bureau of Labor Statistics data

Following the November 2024 election, a dramatic reversal occurred—conservative consumers became significantly more optimistic about future food prices, while liberal consumers forecasted an acceleration in food prices. These divergent expectations, driven purely by political transition rather than actual market conditions, highlight how deeply political worldviews influence economic perceptions as we move into 2026. This political divide compounds an already persistent gap between perceived and actual inflation. Consumers in the CFI survey reported food inflation of 5.4% for 2025, which is higher than their estimates in 2024 (5.2%), but still well above official estimates of 2.7% for Food at Home (Figure 3). This gap reflects the cumulative impact of years of elevated prices on consumer budgets. Looking ahead, consumers predict food prices will rise 3.9% over the next 12 months, slightly higher than the official Food at Home inflation rate of 2.7%, suggesting consumers expect continued pressure on food affordability despite moderating official inflation.

Figure 3

Consumer Food Inflation Estimates (Past 12 Months and Next 12 Months) versus CPI Annual Food Inflation Rate

Source: Consumer Food Insights Survey and Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Food Insecurity Rose Slightly in 2025

While food inflation has begun to stabilize and official inflation rates have moderated, food insecurity in the United States has actually increased in 2025. This highlights a critical issue: sustained inflation for food and other necessities over the past several years has strained household budgets. Moreover, even a small increase in inflation, as we observed in 2025, can nudge low-income households into food insecurity.

Data from the Consumer Food Insights survey on U.S. household food insecurity reveals the severity of this trend. Through December 2025, the average food insecurity rate in the U.S. was 13.3%, up from 12.5% in 2024, see figure 4. The situation is particularly acute among SNAP participants, where the food insecurity rate surged to 46% in November 2025, a dramatic 10 percentage point increase from the 36% rate seen in recent years. These figures underscore that inflation relief at the margin may not fully address the underlying affordability challenges created by cumulative price increases since 2021. Beyond inflation, contributing factors include federal government uncertainty around nutrition assistance program funding and recent changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which have compounded food access challenges for vulnerable populations.

Figure 4

U.S. Household Food Insecurity Rate (%)

Source: Consumer Food Insights Survey

So, what’s on the horizon for 2026?

As we look toward 2026, the USDA’s food price outlook provides a starting point for understanding potential price trajectories. According to the USDA’s Food Price Outlook (https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings), inflation is expected to continue moderating. Specifically, the USDA predicts that egg prices will fall by 22.2% and that beef prices will continue to rise in 2026 (Figure 4). Much uncertainty persists regarding how the economy will perform, including the trajectory of interest rates, inflation expectations, and the implementation of potential trade and immigration policies. The performance of the macroeconomy, trade policies, and market-specific weather and market events will ultimately affect the performance of food prices over the course of the year.

Figure 5

USDA CPI Forecast for 2026

Source: United States Department of Agriculture