Policy Briefs - Purdue University

Policy Briefs by the Purdue Agricultural Economics Department aims to provide short insights, readable for the general public, on policy issues that are national in scope with an Indiana flare. We were initially motivated by the need to provide timely analysis in the lead up to 2018 Farm Bill discussions. However, the breadth of expertise in our department and the ongoing policy discussions related to farm, food, environment, trade, and development issues warrants a longer view and broader scope. The department hopes to enrich policy debates by providing data and context, quantifying impacts, and offering alternatives.

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The March 2026 CPI Report: What It Tells Us About the Iran Conflict’s Inflation Footprint — And What Is Still Coming

Publication Date: April 2026

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group

Summary: The March 2026 CPI report confirms what the structural analysis predicted: the Iran Conflict’s initial consumer price impact is concentrated in motor fuels, which respond to crude oil prices with almost no lag. The 0.9 percent monthly CPI increase is large by recent standards — the largest monthly increase since mid-2022, but it is not yet the broad-based food and goods inflation that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption will eventually produce.

The Iran Conflict and Global Food Security: Why the Burden Falls Hardest on the World's Most Vulnerable

Publication Date: March 2026

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade

Summary: When an energy shock ripples out from the Persian Gulf, the headlines focus on oil prices, gasoline costs, implications for value chains and the profit margins of U.S. producers.

The Iran Conflict and Consumer Food Prices: A Broad but Lagged and Sticky Shock

Publication Date: March 2026

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade

Summary: The initial public reaction to an oil price shock reaching $110 per barrel is often to project near-immediate, dramatic increases in grocery prices. This instinct overstates the direct farm-to-retail transmission channel in a straightforward and measurable way. The USDA Economic Research Service tracks how each dollar of consumer food spending is distributed across the supply chain in its Food Dollar Series. The picture it reveals is sobering for those who expect large and rapid retail food price responses driven purely by higher farm input costs.

The Iran Conflict, Energy Prices, and U.S. Farm Profitability: A Balanced Assessment

Publication Date: March 2026

Ken Foster, Professor of Agricultural Economics and Director, Purdue Farm Policy Study Group; Bernhard Dalheimer, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics and Trade

Summary: The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s traded oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow. Within days, Brent crude oil surged from roughly $70 per barrel to over $110, the highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gasoline prices at the pump rose roughly 17 percent in the first two weeks of the conflict, and diesel — the lifeblood of farming operations — followed closely.

From Assets to Well-being: A Conceptual Framework for Community Vitality

Publication Date: March 2026

Authors: Michael Wilcox, Community and Regional Economics Specialist, Assistant Director Community Development; Jeffrey Walker, Community Vitality Specialist; Zuzana Bednarik, Research and Extension Specialist; DeAndre Malone, Graduate Research Assistant

Summary: This article presents a conceptual framework integrating the Community Capitals Framework (CCF) and the Policy, Systems, and Environment (PSE) approach to understand community vitality and well-being. Community vitality links community assets to well-being outcomes through a dynamic process in which communities pursue shared aspirations of well-being. The framework positions Cooperative Extension and community partners to align asset-based, community-focused programming with well-being-aligned initiatives.

Does a higher standard deduction decrease cash donations and volunteering?

Publication Date: October 2024

Author: Laura Montenovo, Assistant Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Tax policy shapes individuals’ incentives to give to charities. In fact, taxpayers can deduct charitable cash contributions as an itemized deduction, which decreases their taxable income and leads to a lower tax bill. Itemizing deductions, however, is not convenient for all taxpayers. Moreover, the standard deduction is the better option for those whose total itemized deductions for eligible expenses are lower than the current standard deduction. Taxpayers choose between the standard deduction and itemized deductions based on which yields the lower amount of taxable income and, hence, tax liability.

Indiana Labor Market Trends Pre- and Post-COVID-19

Publication Date: July 2024

Laura Montenovo, Assistant Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics

Summary: This report examines the evolution of Indiana’s labor market from 2014 to 2023, highlighting the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a swift recovery and growth in labor demand post-2021, and a return to pre-pandemic trends starting in 2023. Key indicators such as unemployment rates, employment levels, employment churn, and earnings are analyzed to understand these trends.

Has the IRA made conservation a target in the Farm Bill debate?

Publication Date: May 2023