Agricultural Economics

The cost of Thanksgiving staples see price hike amid pandemic

Story by Emma Ea Ambrose
November 18, 2020

Thanksgiving, like most of 2020, is going to be different for families this year. Food prices mirror the uncertainty and volatility that the global pandemic introduced to general life.

“While many of the food prices have come back down off the spikes in late spring and early summer, it remains the case that retail food prices are significantly higher now than at the same time last year. In October (the last data available), prices of food at grocery were 4 percent higher than the same time last year,” Jayson Lusk, agricultural economics department head and professor, said. “It’s been almost a decade, since 2011, that we observed this rate of annual food price inflation.”

Referencing data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Department of Agriculture, Lusk added that wholesale turkey prices are about 15 percent higher than they were November of last year and 30 percent higher than Thanksgiving of 2018. Currently, wholesale turkey prices are hovering around $1.25 per lb. compared to roughly $0.95 per lb. two years ago. At retail locations, meat, dairy and egg prices are running 6.1 percent higher than this time last year, baking products experienced a 3 percent hike and produce prices are 2.6 percent higher than 2019. Given the spike in food prices early in the COVID-19 pandemic, this trend is not surprising, Lusk continued, and prices have actually dropped since the spring.

“This year-over-year change is higher than has been observed in the last decade,” Lusk said. “From 2000 to 2019, the average annual change in retail grocery prices was about 1.9 percent. Throughout much of 2015 and 2016, retail grocery prices actually fell relative to the year prior.”

As COVID-19 cases climb throughout the country, particularly in the Midwest, Lusk predicts we might see a run on certain goods around the holidays, although nothing compared to the empty shelves seen in March. Many stores experienced shortages in the spring as demand shifted away from restaurants and fast food joints to grocery store goods, and the nation-wide food system had a scramble to adjust and meet those demands. Now, grocers are more prepared and there are no anticipated shortages.

Smaller gatherings and less travel are anticipated this year holidays, Lusk added, which means people will buy smaller turkeys, less food or, potentially, opt for more non-traditional Thanksgiving meals.

“Do you really need a 20lb turkey if the entire family isn’t coming to visit,” Lusk asked.

Featured Stories

Mary Beth Adams stands in front of a sign publicizing her visit to Nanjing Normal University in China.

Distinguished Alumna Adams Travels to China for Scientific Exchange Opportunity

Dr. Mary Beth Adams, a 2016 Purdue Distinguished Agricultural Alumni Award honoree and 2020...

Undergraduate Student Spotlight: Serena Wesley

Serena Wesley is in her third year as a Purdue Animal Sciences student, and she will be...

House has water all around it from flooding.

2024 Top Midwestern weather events

The Midwest experienced record-breaking weather events in 2024, including impacts from...

Purdue Agriculture athletes earn Big Ten recognition

Three Purdue Agriculture student athletes were named Academic All-Big Ten Honorees for the spring...

15 Black Vultures scavenge a calf carcass at Southern Indiana Purdue Agriculture Center while one Turkey Vulture waits vigilantly in the background.

Researchers Study Competitive Behaviors Between Black Vultures, Turkey Vultures

Aristotle Onassis once said I have no friends and no enemies – only competitors. A...

Ankita Raturi, an assistant professor in agricultural and biological engineering who runs the Agricultural Informatics Lab

Ankita Raturi Wins Maxwell/Hanrahan Award in Food

It wasn’t until a minute into the phone call that Ankita Raturi understood she was not...