June 20, 2012

Farmland Values – Will the Boom Turn Bust?

Table of Contents

  1. What is a Bubble?
  2. Farmland Values and Fundamentals
    1. A Historical Perspective on Nominal and Real Gains
    2. Increasing Value‐to‐Rent Multiples
    3. A Historical Perspective on Sector Returns and Asset Values
    4. Falling Interest Rates
    5. Returns and Values: The Case of Indiana
    6. Are the High Multiples Sustainable?
  3. The Role of Expectations
  4. What Do Farmland Investors Say?
  5. Attitudes toward Valuation
    1. Someone Else will Pay More
    2. Value‐to‐Rent Relationship
    3. Future Values and Incomes
    4. Where to in the Future? Multiples
    5. The Link between Commodity Price Expectations and Values
  6. Summarizing the Survey Results
  7. Conclusions
  8. References

 

Read and download the PDF of the full paper prepared for the 2012 Agricultural Symposium.

 

*Download the slides from Dr. Gloy’s presentation at the 2013 Top Producer Seminar on this article. ​

TAGS:

TEAM LINKS:

RELATED RESOURCES

2026 Farmland Values & Cash Rents: The Numbers You Need to Know

September 11, 2026

Indiana farmland values and cash rents remained relatively stable statewide in 2026, but results varied across land quality classes and regions. Todd Kuethe highlights the key numbers from Purdue’s latest Farmland Values and Cash Rent Survey.

2026 Cash Rents: Why Aren’t Rents Falling More?

September 10, 2026

Cash rents have softened in some parts of Indiana in 2026, but overall, rents remain relatively stable. So why aren’t they falling more, even after several years of weaker returns to land? Michael Langemeier and Todd Kuethe examine the latest cash rent results from the 2026 Purdue Farmland Values and Cash Rents Survey and look at what the numbers could mean for 2027.

Indiana Farmland Values: Stable in 2026, but What Happens Next?

September 8, 2026

Indiana farmland values remained relatively stable in 2026, but regional differences and changing market forces are creating a mixed outlook. Purdue agricultural economists Todd Kuethe and Michael Langemeier examine what is driving farmland values and what the market could look like in 2027.

UPCOMING EVENTS

Weathering Water Extremes: Connecting Soil Health, Drainage, Irrigation, and Farm Resilience

Join educators from across the Midwest to build skills for communicating soil health concepts on Nov. 4-5, 2026. In the field, we’ll evaluate the relationship between soil health and water management focusing on irrigation and edge of field practices. The in-service will have both classroom and on farm demonstrations.

Land of Opportunity: A Conference for Farmland Owners!

The Land of Opportunity: A Conference for Farmland Owners will be held at two locations on October 5 and October 6, providing farmland owners with valuable information and resources to help them make informed decisions about their land. The conference will feature keynote presentations, educational breakout sessions, and networking opportunities designed specifically for those who own, manage, or have an interest in farmland.

2026 Crop Cost and Return Guide

September 16, 2025

The 2026 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide provides estimated costs and net returns for planting, growing, and harvesting corn, soybeans, and wheat in the upcoming year. Cost and return information presents information for low, average, and high productivity soils. Early projections point to slightly higher breakeven prices.

2025 Farmland Values & Market Trends

September 9, 2025

Purdue ag economists Todd Kuethe and Michael Langemeier as they discuss Indiana farmland values on this, the first of two episodes reviewing the 2025 Purdue Farmland Values and Cash Rental Rates survey results. The survey shows Indiana land prices continue to rise and are anticipated to continue a modest increase for the rest of 2025 for most of the state.

Farmland Prices Increase Despite Downward Pressure, Purdue Ag Econ Report August 2025

August 19, 2025

Indiana farmland prices have continued the trend of record highs in 2025, according to the latest Purdue Farmland Value and Cash Rents Survey results. The average price of top-quality farmland reached $14,826 per acre, a 3.0% increase from June 2024. Statewide, cash rents increased from 1.5 to 1.7% for poor-, average-, and top-quality land.