Uncertainty over the course of the pandemic and the response by workers and businesses to inflationary pressures are expected to be the determining factors in what is likely to be slower GDP growth in 2022.

COVID-19 exposed how lack of childcare impacts households and employment.

While trade policy does not appear to be a major priority of the Biden Administration, it does affect many key objectives. One example is the supply chain problem, which may not be fully resolved in 2022.

Payments to farmers have spiked the past four years from trade war and COVID assistance. Should the next Farm Bill expand its criteria for emergency assistance to wider economy shocks?

Almost two years into the pandemic, concerns about empty grocery shelves have been replaced by concerns about higher food prices. Increases in wages in the food sector, rising agricultural commodity prices, transportation bottlenecks, and strong consumer demand have led to the highest annual grocery price increases in a decade and the highest annual restaurant price increases since the early 1980s.

Total US cow numbers and milk production have declined in the second half of 2021 placing upward pressure on prices heading into 2022. Changes in consumption have been highly product specific and the discussions surrounding fluid milk consumption, especially among children, continue. Potential changes in preferences surrounding milk fat content in products are worthy of watching in the coming years.

Despite substantially higher production costs, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see positive margins in 2022, particularly for rotation corn and soybeans on high productivity ground.

Both land values and cash rents are likely to increase in 2022.

Low interest rates, low demand for loans, high repayment rates, and fund availability suggest agricultural credit markets well positioned for 2022