Farmer confidence continues to weaken as producers face tightening margins and growing uncertainty about the future. In this Purdue Commercial AgBrief, Michael Langemeier explains what the latest Ag Economy Barometer survey reveals about financial stress, capital investment plans, and how producers are adjusting expectations for the years ahead.

The February 2026 Ag Economy Barometer reveals a sharp divergence in sentiment between crop and livestock producers, with livestock farms reporting substantially stronger confidence. Despite differences in current outlook and capital investment sentiment, long-term growth expectations and transition planning remain similar across farm types, highlighting continued focus on expansion and generational transfer.

In this episode of Purdue Commercial AgCast, Joana Colussi and Michael Langemeier discuss the February 2026 Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer results. They share insights on the growing divide between crop and livestock sentiment, capital investment hesitation, farmland value expectations, farm growth trends, and what these signals mean for 2026 decision-making.

Farmer sentiment improved in February as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose from 113 points in January to 116. The Current Conditions Index increased by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index dropped 1 point. Although concerns about agricultural exports moderated somewhat from the previous month, they are still higher than those expressed in December. In addition, the percentage of respondents who think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” declined for the second month in a row.

Brazil has gained a significant cost advantage in global soybean production — and farm-level data helps explain why. In this Purdue Commercial AgBrief, Joana Colussi compares soybean production costs, revenues, and profitability between a typical farm in Iowa and one in Mato Grosso, Brazil using standardized agri benchmark data from 2020–2024.

In Part 2 of the Lessons From the Delta series, Chad Fiechter and Todd Kuethe speak with Aaron Shew about farmland valuation, land market transparency, and rice payment systems. The discussion explores how limited sales data, capital intensity, and milling economics shape risk and long-term farm business decisions.

This article compares farm-level soybean costs and profitability in Iowa and Mato Grosso from 2020–2024. Brazilian farms face higher direct input costs, while U.S. farms carry heavier land-related overhead. Structural cost differences help explain Brazil’s sustained profitability and ongoing competitiveness in global soybean markets.

Corn basis remains steady across much of the Eastern Corn Belt as markets transition to May futures contracts, with particularly strong local basis levels in central Ohio and northern Indiana. Meanwhile, soybean basis shows significantly more volatility, with widening spreads across districts and notable weakness in Iowa. Ethanol plants continue to offer firm premiums relative to local delivery points, while soybean crush plant basis has softened in several states. Producers can use the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture’s Crop Basis Tool to compare local ethanol and crush plant basis levels and evaluate current pricing opportunities against historical averages.

Michael Langemeier presented at the Ag Engage Conference in Bloomington on February 19, 2026, on valuing sweat equity and adding a person to the farm.

In this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast, we launch a new mini-series: Lessons From the Delta. After traveling to Arkansas and the Mississippi Delta region, Chad Fiechter and Todd Kuethe share what stood out most about crop diversity, irrigation intensity, farm structure, and regional economics.

USDA’s first 2026 Farm Income and Wealth Statistics release provides an early look at the U.S. farm balance sheet heading into the next production cycle. Farm assets and equity are projected to grow at the slowest pace since 2019–2020, while farm debt accumulation accelerates for the third time in four years. Non-real estate assets are expected to decline, driven by reductions in livestock and crop inventories, even as machinery investment continues rising. Key efficiency ratios remain near historic lows, signaling tighter production returns relative to asset values.

Indiana corn prices averaged $4.45 per bushel in 2025, and futures markets suggest prices may remain below long-run averages into 2026. Lower grain prices imply reduced feed costs, but volatility in corn and soybean meal markets continues to create risk. This article examines recent trends in feed cost indices for farrow-to-finish and swine finishing enterprises and evaluates how changes in corn and soybean meal prices could affect feed costs in 2026.

Margins remain tight for 2026. Purdue’s latest crop budget estimates show soybean rotations maintaining a contribution margin advantage over corn, while breakeven prices for both crops remain well above expected market prices. Negative projected earnings could slow machinery purchases and put pressure on cash rents, making careful cost management and crop budgeting essential.

Farm income in Indiana gets a boost in 2025, but 2026 projections show renewed financial pressure. Here’s what’s driving receipts, expenses, and net income.

New Ag Economy Barometer data suggest rising operating loans—especially those tied to carryover debt—may signal increasing financial stress and thinning working capital cushions on farms.

Farmer sentiment dropped sharply to start 2026, reflecting growing economic concerns across U.S. agriculture. But beyond the headline decline in the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, this episode focuses on what the shift signals for farm financial stress, investment decisions,…