June 13, 2016

Ag Economy Barometer

Recently Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, in a partnership with the CME Group, launched the Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The Ag Economy Barometer is designed to fill an information void regarding the overall health of the U.S. farm economy and is analogous to publicly available indices focused on the broad U.S. economy, such as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

The Barometer is based on a monthly telephone survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers and is designed to learn more about farmers’ attitudes and sentiments regarding the status of the U.S. farm economy. Farmers across a broad spectrum of agricultural enterprises are surveyed. Their responses are weighted based upon the USDA’s Census of Agriculture to ensure that survey responses are representative of the entire farm sector.

The key agricultural enterprises in each month’s survey include the following: corn/soybeans, wheat, cotton, beef cattle, dairy, and hogs. These enterprises collectively account for two-thirds of all U.S. agricultural production. In each survey, we target a distribution of farms across these key enterprises. Then we ensure a portion of responses come from each production enterprise. Those survey portions are 53% corn/soybeans, 14% wheat, 3% cotton, 19% beef cattle, 5% dairy, and 6% hogs.

Specifically, responses to five questions are used to generate the Ag Economy Barometer value each month. The questions are:

  1. Would you say that your operation today is financially better off, worse off, or about the same compared to a year ago?
  2. Looking ahead, do you think that a year from now your operation will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?
  3. Turning to the general agricultural economy as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months there will be good times financially, or bad times?
  4. Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely; U.S. agriculture during the next five years will have widespread good times or widespread bad times?
  5. Thinking about large farm investments – like buildings and machinery — generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or bad time to buy such items?

INTERPRETING THE AG ECONOMY BAROMETER VALUES

Responses to these five questions are used to calculate the index value each month. Data was collected monthly from October 2015 through March 2016 to establish a base period for the Barometer and each month the Barometer value provides a comparison of farm sector economic conditions with the six-month base period. For example, a Barometer value of 100 implies conditions were unchanged compared to the base period whereas values greater than or less than 100 indicate an improvement or deterioration in farmers’ sentiment, respectively, compared to the October 2015- March 2016 base period

 

The Ag Economy Barometer will be published the first Tuesday of each month. If you are interested in learning more about the Ag Economy Barometer, visit our website, www.purdue.edu/agbarometer where you can also register for email updates when the Ag Economy Barometer is published.

TAGS:

TEAM LINKS:

RELATED RESOURCES

Crop Basis Tool

March 24, 2023

The Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture Crop Basis Tool is a web-based tool that provides access to weekly historical and contemporaneous corn and soybean basis data for local market regions in the eastern corn belt.

READ MORE

2023 Crop Cost and Return Guide

March 24, 2023

The Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide offers farmers a resource to project financials for the coming cropping year. These are the March 2023 crop budget estimations for 2023.

READ MORE

2023 Indiana Farm Custom Rates

March 24, 2023

The rates reported in this publication were compiled from questionnaires received from farmers, farm owners, farm custom operators, and professional farm managers in Indiana. Purdue Extension Educators distributed the questionnaires at meetings and events statewide during the last month of 2022 and the first three months of 2023. Respondents were asked to report custom rates they had either paid or received during the past year.

READ MORE

UPCOMING EVENTS

Monthly Corn & Soybean Outlook Update

Webinar each month following USDA’s release of the updated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Catch the next monthly update on April 1 for the corn and soybean outlook following release of USDA’s Prospective Plantings reports. Registration is free.

Read More

2023 Crop Cost and Return Guide

March 24, 2023

The Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide offers farmers a resource to project financials for the coming cropping year. These are the March 2023 crop budget estimations for 2023.

READ MORE

2023 Indiana Farm Custom Rates

March 24, 2023

The rates reported in this publication were compiled from questionnaires received from farmers, farm owners, farm custom operators, and professional farm managers in Indiana. Purdue Extension Educators distributed the questionnaires at meetings and events statewide during the last month of 2022 and the first three months of 2023. Respondents were asked to report custom rates they had either paid or received during the past year.

READ MORE

Making Your 2023 Crop Insurance Decision

February 24, 2023

Now is a great opportunity for producers to review their crop insurance choices for the upcoming season. Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture’s ag economists Michael Langemeier and James Mintert walk participants through key considerations for their 2023 insurance options. In particular, they discuss a handy thumb rule to use when considering an increase in coverage levels for RP insurance.

READ MORE