June 13, 2016

Ag Economy Barometer

Recently Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, in a partnership with the CME Group, launched the Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The Ag Economy Barometer is designed to fill an information void regarding the overall health of the U.S. farm economy and is analogous to publicly available indices focused on the broad U.S. economy, such as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

The Barometer is based on a monthly telephone survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers and is designed to learn more about farmers’ attitudes and sentiments regarding the status of the U.S. farm economy. Farmers across a broad spectrum of agricultural enterprises are surveyed. Their responses are weighted based upon the USDA’s Census of Agriculture to ensure that survey responses are representative of the entire farm sector.

The key agricultural enterprises in each month’s survey include the following: corn/soybeans, wheat, cotton, beef cattle, dairy, and hogs. These enterprises collectively account for two-thirds of all U.S. agricultural production. In each survey, we target a distribution of farms across these key enterprises. Then we ensure a portion of responses come from each production enterprise. Those survey portions are 53% corn/soybeans, 14% wheat, 3% cotton, 19% beef cattle, 5% dairy, and 6% hogs.

Specifically, responses to five questions are used to generate the Ag Economy Barometer value each month. The questions are:

  1. Would you say that your operation today is financially better off, worse off, or about the same compared to a year ago?
  2. Looking ahead, do you think that a year from now your operation will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?
  3. Turning to the general agricultural economy as a whole, do you think that during the next twelve months there will be good times financially, or bad times?
  4. Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely; U.S. agriculture during the next five years will have widespread good times or widespread bad times?
  5. Thinking about large farm investments – like buildings and machinery — generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or bad time to buy such items?

INTERPRETING THE AG ECONOMY BAROMETER VALUES

Responses to these five questions are used to calculate the index value each month. Data was collected monthly from October 2015 through March 2016 to establish a base period for the Barometer and each month the Barometer value provides a comparison of farm sector economic conditions with the six-month base period. For example, a Barometer value of 100 implies conditions were unchanged compared to the base period whereas values greater than or less than 100 indicate an improvement or deterioration in farmers’ sentiment, respectively, compared to the October 2015- March 2016 base period

 

The Ag Economy Barometer will be published the first Tuesday of each month. If you are interested in learning more about the Ag Economy Barometer, visit our website, www.purdue.edu/agbarometer where you can also register for email updates when the Ag Economy Barometer is published.

TAGS:

TEAM LINKS:

RELATED RESOURCES

May Corn & Soybean Outlook Update

May 16, 2022

Recorded May 16 | Purdue ag economists discussed the corn and soybean outlook following USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and provided implications for crop marketing strategies.

READ MORE

Agricultural Job Market & the Purdue Ag Jobs Dashboard

May 9, 2022

Wondering what the current agriculture job market is? 

In this episode Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture’s ag economists Brady Brewer and Nathan Delay discuss the agricultural job market and the Purdue University’s Department of Agriculture Economics Ag Jobs Dashboard from research conducted by grad student Doug Abney.

The dashboard is an overview of monthly data collected of the agricultural job market over time, starting the summer of 2021. Slides and a transcript from the discussion are available.

READ MORE

International Benchmarks for Wheat Production

May 5, 2022

This paper examines the competitiveness of wheat production for important international wheat production regions using 2016 to 2020 data from the agri benchmark network. Data from ten typical farms with wheat enterprise data from Argentina, Australia, Canada, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, and United States were used in this paper.

READ MORE

UPCOMING EVENTS

Monthly Corn & Soybean Outlook Webinar Series

Webinar each month following USDA’s release of the updated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Catch the next monthly update on June 13th time TBD, for the corn and soybean outlook following release of USDA’s June Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. Registration is free.

Read More

May Corn & Soybean Outlook Update

May 16, 2022

Recorded May 16 | Purdue ag economists discussed the corn and soybean outlook following USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and provided implications for crop marketing strategies.

READ MORE

Comparing Net Returns for Alternative Leasing Arrangements

August 4, 2021

A west central Indiana case farm is used to illustrate net returns to land derived from crop share, fixed cash rent, and flexible cash lease arrangements. Leases on agricultural land are strongly influenced by local custom and tradition. However, in most areas, landowners and operators can choose from several types of lease arrangements.

READ MORE

Indiana Farmland Prices Hit New Record High in 2021

July 26, 2021

It is safe to say that the last year was unlike any other in recent memory. The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruption to our lives and the global economy. Surprisingly, many of the current economic forces put upward pressure on farmland prices.

READ MORE