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Despite the headline deal between the U.S. and China on soybeans, the numbers show a different story. The 12 million-ton commitment for 2025 remains below recent norms, while Brazil and Argentina surged ahead in China’s market. For producers focused on scale, margins, and global competition, the implications are clear: tariff concerns remain, diversification matters, and South America is an emerging force.
Read MoreWhen thinking about the adoption of conservation practices, like cover crops, it is important to note two things. First, adoption rates have ebbs and flows; in other words, adoption does not necessarily follow a steady trend. Second, sometimes conservation practices
Read MoreJoe Balagtas, a former senior economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) and professor of agricultural economics at Purdue joins colleague hosts Todd Kuethe and Chad Fiechter in this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast. Balagtas shares his unique experiences working at the CEA during the Trump administration and his role in providing the President with critical economic information.
Read MoreFarmers across Brazil have begun planting the 2025/26 crop season, with expectations for another record in corn and soybean acreage. The first outlook for the new cycle, released by the National Supply Company (Conab), Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency,
Read MoreAs corn and soybean harvest progress across the country, recent basis movements have pushed nearby basis levels above their historical averages in much of the Eastern Corn Belt. Typically, basis weakens through harvest, with nearby basis levels often bottoming out between mid-October and November. This marketing year, however, corn and soybean basis began below the two- and three-year averages, respectively, and recent movement has flipped the relationship in many USDA crop reporting districts.
Read MoreThe U.S. soybean harvest began in September without any orders from the world’s largest buyer: China. American producers are harvesting a crop the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates at 4.3 billion bushels, and there is no indication of when shipments to China will resume. In a typical year, China buys more than half of all U.S. soybean exports. Meanwhile, Brazil set a record for shipments to China from January through August 2025. In this article, we present U.S. and Brazilian soybean trade flows to China during the last two years, analyze the trade relationship between these countries dating back to before the first round of the 2018 trade war, and consider the possible consequences if a trade deal is not reached this fall.
Read MoreFor much of the 2024-2025 marketing year, the basis for both corn and soybeans looked much different than their historical averages. Both crops started well below what previous trends would suggest.
Read MoreBrant Caley, an expert in ag tech, discusses his journey, from playing FFA basketball to working with companies like Trimble, Farmers Business Network (FBN), and now Gradable on this episode of the Purdue Commercial AgCast. The discussion covers the evolution of farm technology, sustainability in grain marketing, the future of agricultural technology – and the potential impact of emerging technologies like AI and LLMs.
Read MoreOn Tuesday, the August WASDE report was released, which significantly increased the projected 25/26 corn supply and decreased the soybean supply. There were immediate effects in the futures market. September and December corn futures dropped by $0.13/bu, and September and November soybean futures increased by $0.21/bu. As we approach harvest, it is yet to be seen how this will affect the new crop basis.
Read MoreAt the time of our last basis update in the second week of June, the regional soybean basis was highly volatile. This volatility was driven by sharp decreases in basis at soybean processors in Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana. As June continued, the sharp decrease in soybean basis continued and spread across the entire Eastern Corn Belt. However, as we have progressed through July, much of the basis decrease has been recovered.
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