Recent live cattle futures prices have been extremely depressed, sending signals of much lower cash prices next year. While prices are expected to be lower next year, they may not be as low as suggested by futures.

Cattle prices have had a rough spring. After peaking in late 2014 and early 2015, prices have been adjusting downward from very lofty peaks. High prices and profits at that time provided the incentives to expand beef production.

Nothing like record cattle prices and profitability to get an industry excited about expansion. The latest USDA Cattle report shows a rapid expansion is underway with cattle and calf numbers up three percent and beef cow numbers up four percent in the past year.

The adage that the cure for high prices is “High Prices” is evident this year in beef markets. Finished cattle prices reached record highs around $170 in late 2014 and early spring of 2015.

The nation’s beef cow herd has started down the path of the largest expansion in 25 years. The last major expansion was from 1990 to 1995 when the herd grew by ten percent.

The beef industry stands alone in 2015 in its continued reduction in supplies available to consumers. The year of 2014 was a special year for the animal production industries with record high farm level prices for cattle, hogs, broilers, turkeys, milk and eggs.