2026-01: PAER Outlook 2026

March 20, 2026

Welcome to the 2026 PAER Outlook issue! This year’s issue is our biggest in years, showcasing the broad range of engagement in Purdue’s Agricultural Economics department. The first part of this issue offers articles that focus on the different aspects of the economy and policy, including the overall economy, trade and regional economic indicators.

The second part of the issue features our traditional agricultural outlook topics with articles focused on the outlook for agricultural commodities and markets, including agricultural land and credit markets. Finally, we close the issue with two articles that make use of new measures to examine Indiana’s economic performance from a community perspective.

This outlook issue offers a snapshot of the analysis and engagement activities of our department’s faculty and staff. Interested readers are encouraged to follow Purdue Agricultural Economics on the web or via social media, as well as the various centers in the department that present their findings via newsletters, social media, the web, podcasts and, of course, published reports throughout the year.

The editors would like to thank our contributors for their hard work in making this issue possible, and we hope the information continues to be useful and thought-provoking for PAER readers. We also encourage readers to stay up to date on the many centers within Purdue’s Agricultural Economics Department.

The Outlook 2026 issue captures a comprehensive snapshot of the department’s efforts to support stakeholders through research and education, advancing the land-grant mission of Purdue Agricultural Economics. We hope this publication provides valuable insights for the year ahead.

Roman Keeney, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics and Co-editor of Purdue Agricultural Economics Report

Articles in this Publication:

From Assets to Well-being: A Conceptual Framework for Community Vitality

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026

Learning International Economics the Hard Way

Is There a Future for the U.S. Farm Bill?

The Economic Situation of the North Central Region and a Zoom in on Indiana: An Analysis Using the NCR-Stat Baseline Survey

Employment and Wage Trends in the U.S., the Midwest and Indiana: Overall and in Agriculture

Farm Income Outlook for Indiana

2026 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide

Corn and Soybean Outlook

“What to Watch” in Dairy Markets in 2026

2026 Agricultural Credit Outlook

2026 Farmland and Cash Rent Outlook

Caring Stress Index: What is Happening in Indiana and the Midwest?

How is Indiana Doing? Community Vitality and Well-being in the North Central Region

Latest Articles:

From Assets to Well-being: A Conceptual Framework for Community Vitality

March 23, 2026

This article presents a conceptual framework integrating the Community Capitals Framework (CCF) and the Policy, Systems, and Environment (PSE) approach to understand community vitality and well-being. Community vitality links community assets to well-being outcomes through a dynamic process in which communities pursue shared aspirations of well-being. The framework positions Cooperative Extension and community partners to align asset-based, community-focused programming with well-being-aligned initiatives.

READ MORE

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026

March 23, 2026

The U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to grow slowly, primarily due to slower consumer spending growth. Unemployment should remain around 4.6%, as the growth in job openings matches the growth in job searchers. Inflation is likely to hold steady near 2.5%, due to lower oil prices and slower growth in housing costs. Tariffs will add to goods inflation. The Federal Reserve may make further modest reductions in the federal funds rate, leading to somewhat lower interest rates. Barring unexpected shocks, the outlook is for another year of slow expansion rather than recession.

READ MORE

Learning International Economics the Hard Way

March 23, 2026

U.S. trade policy is being made without even a textbook understanding of International Economics. The policies of 2025 will largely continue in 2026, hurting export-oriented agriculture and eroding U.S. standing in the world.

READ MORE