2026-01: PAER Outlook 2026

March 20, 2026

Welcome to the 2026 PAER Outlook issue! This year’s issue is our biggest in years, showcasing the broad range of engagement in Purdue’s Agricultural Economics department. The first part of this issue offers articles that focus on the different aspects of the economy and policy, including the overall economy, trade and regional economic indicators.

The second part of the issue features our traditional agricultural outlook topics with articles focused on the outlook for agricultural commodities and markets, including agricultural land and credit markets. Finally, we close the issue with two articles that make use of new measures to examine Indiana’s economic performance from a community perspective.

This outlook issue offers a snapshot of the analysis and engagement activities of our department’s faculty and staff. Interested readers are encouraged to follow Purdue Agricultural Economics on the web or via social media, as well as the various centers in the department that present their findings via newsletters, social media, the web, podcasts and, of course, published reports throughout the year.

The editors would like to thank our contributors for their hard work in making this issue possible, and we hope the information continues to be useful and thought-provoking for PAER readers. We also encourage readers to stay up to date on the many centers within Purdue’s Agricultural Economics Department.

The Outlook 2026 issue captures a comprehensive snapshot of the department’s efforts to support stakeholders through research and education, advancing the land-grant mission of Purdue Agricultural Economics. We hope this publication provides valuable insights for the year ahead.

Roman Keeney, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics and Co-editor of Purdue Agricultural Economics Report

Articles in this Publication:

From Assets to Well-being: A Conceptual Framework for Community Vitality

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026

Learning International Economics the Hard Way

Is There a Future for the U.S. Farm Bill?

The Economic Situation of the North Central Region and a Zoom in on Indiana: An Analysis Using the NCR-Stat Baseline Survey

Employment and Wage Trends in the U.S., the Midwest and Indiana: Overall and in Agriculture

Farm Income Outlook for Indiana

2026 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide

Corn and Soybean Outlook

“What to Watch” in Dairy Markets in 2026

2026 Agricultural Credit Outlook

2026 Farmland and Cash Rent Outlook

Caring Stress Index: What is Happening in Indiana and the Midwest?

How is Indiana Doing? Community Vitality and Well-being in the North Central Region

Latest Articles:

The August 2026 Beef Import Waiver: A Narrow Tool Aimed at a Narrow Problem

August 25, 2026

This is a targeted policy aimed at a narrow slice of the beef market — imported product for ground beef, much of which is lean processing beef — rather than a broad intervention in the fed-cattle market. It was announced in response to historically tight cattle supplies and unusually high beef prices. Within that narrow lane, the most plausible effect is some additional availability of lower-cost processing beef and some downward pressure on ground-beef prices.

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The July 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Energy Shock Bypasses the Food Pipeline

August 20, 2026

Energy prices are 14.7 percent above year-ago levels, and yet the raw agricultural commodities that sit at the head of the food pipeline are cheaper than they were last July. That combination is the whole story of this month’s release — but it is not evidence that the energy shock missed agriculture.

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Indiana’s Farmland Market Holds Steady as Regions Swap Places

August 17, 2026

In sum, state-level aggregate farmland prices exhibited relatively modest changes from 2025 to 2026. Respondents suggest that the majority of market forces are placing downward pressure on farmland prices, so it is not surprising that they expect modest declines through the remainder of 2026.

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