2026-01: PAER Outlook 2026

March 20, 2026

Welcome to the 2026 PAER Outlook issue! This year’s issue is our biggest in years, showcasing the broad range of engagement in Purdue’s Agricultural Economics department. The first part of this issue offers articles that focus on the different aspects of the economy and policy, including the overall economy, trade and regional economic indicators.

The second part of the issue features our traditional agricultural outlook topics with articles focused on the outlook for agricultural commodities and markets, including agricultural land and credit markets. Finally, we close the issue with two articles that make use of new measures to examine Indiana’s economic performance from a community perspective.

This outlook issue offers a snapshot of the analysis and engagement activities of our department’s faculty and staff. Interested readers are encouraged to follow Purdue Agricultural Economics on the web or via social media, as well as the various centers in the department that present their findings via newsletters, social media, the web, podcasts and, of course, published reports throughout the year.

The editors would like to thank our contributors for their hard work in making this issue possible, and we hope the information continues to be useful and thought-provoking for PAER readers. We also encourage readers to stay up to date on the many centers within Purdue’s Agricultural Economics Department.

The Outlook 2026 issue captures a comprehensive snapshot of the department’s efforts to support stakeholders through research and education, advancing the land-grant mission of Purdue Agricultural Economics. We hope this publication provides valuable insights for the year ahead.

Roman Keeney, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics and Co-editor of Purdue Agricultural Economics Report

Articles in this Publication:

From Assets to Well-being: A Conceptual Framework for Community Vitality

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026

Learning International Economics the Hard Way

Is There a Future for the U.S. Farm Bill?

The Economic Situation of the North Central Region and a Zoom in on Indiana: An Analysis Using the NCR-Stat Baseline Survey

Employment and Wage Trends in the U.S., the Midwest and Indiana: Overall and in Agriculture

Farm Income Outlook for Indiana

2026 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide

Corn and Soybean Outlook

“What to Watch” in Dairy Markets in 2026

2026 Agricultural Credit Outlook

2026 Farmland and Cash Rent Outlook

Caring Stress Index: What is Happening in Indiana and the Midwest?

How is Indiana Doing? Community Vitality and Well-being in the North Central Region

Latest Articles:

The Iran Conflict and Global Food Security: Why the Burden Falls Hardest on the World’s Most Vulnerable

March 31, 2026

When an energy shock ripples out from the Persian Gulf, the headlines focus on oil prices, gasoline costs, implications for value chains and the profit margins of U.S. producers.

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The Iran Conflict and Consumer Food Prices: A Broad but Lagged and Sticky Shock

March 31, 2026

The initial public reaction to an oil price shock reaching $110 per barrel is often to project near-immediate, dramatic increases in grocery prices. This instinct overstates the direct farm-to-retail transmission channel in a straightforward and measurable way. The USDA Economic Research Service tracks how each dollar of consumer food spending is distributed across the supply chain in its Food Dollar Series. The picture it reveals is sobering for those who expect large and rapid retail food price responses driven purely by higher farm input costs.

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The Iran Conflict, Energy Prices, and U.S. Farm Profitability: A Balanced Assessment

March 31, 2026

The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s traded oil and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flow. Within days, Brent crude oil surged from roughly $70 per barrel to over $110, the highest level since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gasoline prices at the pump rose roughly 17 percent in the first two weeks of the conflict, and diesel — the lifeblood of farming operations — followed closely.

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