2026-01: PAER Outlook 2026

March 20, 2026

Welcome to the 2026 PAER Outlook issue! This year’s issue is our biggest in years, showcasing the broad range of engagement in Purdue’s Agricultural Economics department. The first part of this issue offers articles that focus on the different aspects of the economy and policy, including the overall economy, trade and regional economic indicators.

The second part of the issue features our traditional agricultural outlook topics with articles focused on the outlook for agricultural commodities and markets, including agricultural land and credit markets. Finally, we close the issue with two articles that make use of new measures to examine Indiana’s economic performance from a community perspective.

This outlook issue offers a snapshot of the analysis and engagement activities of our department’s faculty and staff. Interested readers are encouraged to follow Purdue Agricultural Economics on the web or via social media, as well as the various centers in the department that present their findings via newsletters, social media, the web, podcasts and, of course, published reports throughout the year.

The editors would like to thank our contributors for their hard work in making this issue possible, and we hope the information continues to be useful and thought-provoking for PAER readers. We also encourage readers to stay up to date on the many centers within Purdue’s Agricultural Economics Department.

The Outlook 2026 issue captures a comprehensive snapshot of the department’s efforts to support stakeholders through research and education, advancing the land-grant mission of Purdue Agricultural Economics. We hope this publication provides valuable insights for the year ahead.

Roman Keeney, Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics and Co-editor of Purdue Agricultural Economics Report

Articles in this Publication:

From Assets to Well-being: A Conceptual Framework for Community Vitality

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026

Learning International Economics the Hard Way

Is There a Future for the U.S. Farm Bill?

The Economic Situation of the North Central Region and a Zoom in on Indiana: An Analysis Using the NCR-Stat Baseline Survey

Employment and Wage Trends in the U.S., the Midwest and Indiana: Overall and in Agriculture

Farm Income Outlook for Indiana

2026 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide

Corn and Soybean Outlook

“What to Watch” in Dairy Markets in 2026

2026 Agricultural Credit Outlook

2026 Farmland and Cash Rent Outlook

Caring Stress Index: What is Happening in Indiana and the Midwest?

How is Indiana Doing? Community Vitality and Well-being in the North Central Region

Latest Articles:

The June 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Pipeline Cools Across Every Stage

June 12, 2026

June’s CPI and PPI both cooled, and the cooling reaches all the way back to Stage 1 — consistent with a genuine, if possibly temporary, easing of the energy shock rather than a one-month statistical blip. But most of the movement inside the food basket this month — dairy’s reversal, the citrus and lettuce climate stories, the tomato tariff baseline, Brazil’s coffee cycle, and the beef–pork divergence — traces to category-specific supply and policy dynamics that would be happening with or without the conflict.

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El Niño 2026: Converging Pressures on Vegetable Oil Markets

June 12, 2026

A potential record El Niño is now forecast with high model consensus; the spring predictability barrier has been crossed; and we are within the critical agricultural windows for the most exposed crop systems.

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The May 2026 CPI and PPI Reports: The Food Price Pipeline Is Loading at Record Rates

June 12, 2026

The May 2026 CPI and PPI data, read together, tell a coherent and analytically arresting story: quiet at the shelf, loading at record rates upstream.

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