Purdue Agricultural Economics Report (PAER)

The Purdue Agricultural Economics Report (PAER) exists to serve and further the core mission of the department to engage with real world problems that are of value to stakeholders. The scholarship communicated in this publication will represent the department’s excellence in creative endeavor for new knowledge and its dissemination in the economics of agriculture and natural resources.

Recent Publication:

2026-01: PAER Outlook 2026

March 20, 2026

The Outlook 2026 issue captures a comprehensive snapshot of the department’s efforts to support stakeholders through research and education, advancing the land-grant mission of Purdue Agricultural Economics. We hope this publication provides valuable insights for the year ahead.

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From Assets to Well-being: A Conceptual Framework for Community Vitality

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-01

Authors: Michael Wilcox, Community and Regional Economics Specialist, Assistant Director Community Development; Jeffrey Walker, Community Vitality Specialist; Zuzana Bednarik, Research and Extension Specialist; DeAndre Malone, Graduate Research Assistant

Summary: This article presents a conceptual framework integrating the Community Capitals Framework (CCF) and the Policy, Systems, and Environment (PSE) approach to understand community vitality and well-being. Community vitality links community assets to well-being outcomes through a dynamic process in which communities pursue shared aspirations of well-being. The framework positions Cooperative Extension and community partners to align asset-based, community-focused programming with well-being-aligned initiatives.

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2026

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-02

Author: Larry DeBoer, Professor Emeritus and Purdue Extension Specialist

Summary: The U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to grow slowly, primarily due to slower consumer spending growth. Unemployment should remain around 4.6%, as the growth in job openings matches the growth in job searchers. Inflation is likely to hold steady near 2.5%, due to lower oil prices and slower growth in housing costs. Tariffs will add to goods inflation. The Federal Reserve may make further modest reductions in the federal funds rate, leading to somewhat lower interest rates. Barring unexpected shocks, the outlook is for another year of slow expansion rather than recession.

Learning International Economics the Hard Way

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-03

Author: Russell Hillberry, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: U.S. trade policy is being made without even a textbook understanding of International Economics. The policies of 2025 will largely continue in 2026, hurting export-oriented agriculture and eroding U.S. standing in the world.

Is There a Future for the U.S. Farm Bill?

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-04

Author: Roman Keeney, Agricultural Economics Associate Professor, Extension & Outreach Coordinator

Summary: The U.S. Farm Bill, as we typically think of it, remains in limbo. Changes to major spending programs on commodities and SNAP were incorporated into the 2025 budget reconciliation act, while remaining programs were left to end-of-year extensions. The uncertainty about returning to a normal farm bill process, coupled with rapidly adjusting trade policies, makes government action a significant source of uncertainty for U.S. agriculture.

The Economic Situation of the North Central Region and a Zoom in on Indiana: An Analysis Using the NCR-Stat Baseline Survey

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-05

Authors: Ivanna Carrillo-Siller, Agricultural Economics Graduate Research Assistant; Laura Montenovo, Agricultural Economics Assistant Professor, State and Local Finance

Summary: Quantitatively understanding the socio-economic characteristics of an area conveys important information on its capacity for financial self-sufficiency, resistance to economic shocks, and overall quality of living. In this report, we provide key socio-economic information on the states of the North Central region of the United States, with a more careful look at Indiana.

Employment and Wage Trends in the U.S., the Midwest and Indiana: Overall and in Agriculture

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-06

Authors: Ivanna Carrillo-Siller, Agricultural Economics Graduate Research Assistant; Laura Montenovo, Agricultural Economics Assistant Professor, State and Local Finance

Summary: Measuring employment fluctuations reveals essential information about the economy, particularly when compared with the responses of different areas in the same time frame. For an essential industry like agriculture, observing trends in wages and employment shares conveys important information on the labor market in the short, medium, and long term. In this brief, we analyze key labor market data using data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Farm Income Outlook for Indiana

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-07

Author: Michael Langemeier, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Net farm income is projected to increase from $3.26 million in 2024 to $4.71 million in 2025. Lower crop receipts were offset by higher livestock receipts and government payments.

2026 Purdue Crop Cost and Return Guide

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-08

Author: Michael Langemeier, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Production costs and breakeven prices in 2026 are expected to be similar to those experienced in 2025. However, production costs are still considerably higher than they were prior to the advent of COVID-19.

Corn and Soybean Outlook

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-09

Author: Mindy Mallory, Associate Professor, Clearing Corp Endowed Chair in Food & Agricultural Marketing

Summary: This article examines the corn and soybean near-term outlook, taking into consideration the stocks, global competition, and current profitability of both crops.

"What to Watch" in Dairy Markets in 2026

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-10

Authors: Nicole Olynk Widmar, Department Head and Professor of Agricultural Economics; Joscelyn Pilcher, Undergraduate Research Assistant

Summary: Dairy markets are facing changes in domestic consumer demand across products. Dairy farmers in 2026 will navigate a challenging environment in which cheaper feed inputs initially look good, but margins remain squeezed with softening milk prices.

2026 Agricultural Credit Outlook

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-11

Authors: Joshua Strine, Ph.D. Student, Agricultural Economics; Morgan Mastrianni, Ph.D. Student, Agricultural Economics

Summary: For the second year in a row, agricultural credit market conditions have deteriorated in the St. Louis and Chicago Districts. While crop prices have decreased, input costs have increased. Decreasing farm profits over the past three years have contributed to an increased demand for agricultural loans and lower agricultural loan repayment rates.

2026 Farmland and Cash Rent Outlook

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-12

Authors: Binayak Kunwar, Ph.D. Student, Agricultural Economics; Todd Kuethe, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Schrader Chair in Farmland Economics

Summary: Indiana farmland values are expected to remain stable to slightly higher in 2026, while cash rents may soften as producers face tighter margins. Overall, the market appears headed for a steady 2026, without sharp movement in either direction.

Caring Stress Index: What is Happening in Indiana and the Midwest?

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-13

Authors: Laura Montenovo, Agricultural Economics Assistant Professor, State and Local Finance; Roberto Gallardo, Agricultural Economics Associate Professor, Vice President for Engagement; Maria Marshall, James and Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: In this report, we show details on Indiana’s caring stress index (CSI) at the county level in both 2013 and 2023, and a map of its county-level changes between these two years.

How is Indiana Doing? Community Vitality and Well-being in the North Central Region

Publication Date: March 2026

Article ID: PAER-2026-14

Authors: Michael Wilcox, Community and Regional Economics Specialist, Assistant Director Community Development; DeAndre Malone, Graduate Research Assistant; Zuzana Bednarik, Research and Extension Specialist; Jeffrey Walker, Community Vitality Specialist

Summary: Using data from the 2024 NCR-Stat Baseline Survey, this article compares Indiana’s community vitality and well-being to the North Central Region across 14 indices. Indiana trails the NCR on most measures, with institutional trust showing the largest gap (3.16 vs. 3.29). Rural-urban differences are most pronounced in community satisfaction, where rural Indiana (3.44) scores well below urban Indiana (3.64), the largest within-state gap across all indices.

Farmland Prices Increase Despite Downward Pressure

Publication Date: August 2025

Article ID: PAER-2025-11

Author: Todd Kuethe, Professor & Schrader Chair of Farmland Economics

Summary: Indiana farmland values hit new record highs in 2025 despite regional declines, with development demand and recreational land gains offsetting downward pressure from lower farm incomes, weaker crop prices, and interest rates.

Are farmland price expectations “wrong”? It depends how you ask.

Publication Date: August 2025

Article ID: PAER-2025-12

Author: Dewey J. Robertson, MS Agricultural Economics Student

Summary: Analysis of the Purdue Farmland Values and Cash Rents Survey shows price expectations often seem inaccurate because they’re assumed to be averages—when many respondents report the most likely price. Viewed this way, expectations are rational in most cases, making them more useful for producers and investors.

Is farmland a good investment? Comparing risk and returns to other asset classes

Publication Date: August 2025

Article ID: PAER-2025-13

Author: Dewey J. Robertson, MS Agricultural Economics Student & Todd Kuethe, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: Indiana farmland offers returns above bonds but below equities, with less volatility than stocks. Adding cash rents boosts returns, and its low correlation with equities and inverse correlation with bonds make it a strong portfolio diversifier.

Trends in Farmland Price to Rent Ratios in Indiana

Publication Date: August 2025

Article ID: PAER-2025-14

Author: Michael Langemeier, Professor of Agricultural Economic

Summary: The P/rent ratio (farmland price per acre divided by cash rent per acre) is substantially higher than historical values. The P/rent10 ratio is computed by dividing farmland price per acre by the ten-year moving average cash rent. A negative relationship was found between the P/rent10 ratio at the time of purchase, and the 10-year and 20-year rates of return.

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy in 2025

Publication Date: January 2025

Article ID: PAER-2025-01

Author: Larry DeBoer, Extension Specialist and Professor Emeritus

Summary: Amid much policy uncertainty, output will likely grow about 2.2% in 2025, a bit slower than in 2024. Inflation should fall gradually to 2.4%, the unemployment rate should remain unchanged, and the Fed will cut interest rates more slowly than previously expected.

Interesting Times for U.S. Trade Policy

Publication Date: January 2025

Article ID: PAER-2025-02

Author: Russell Hillberry, Professor of Agricultural Economics

Summary: The President-elect’s trade policy is likely to be at least as harmful in his second term in office as it was in his first term. Export-oriented agriculture will bear a disproportionate share of the costs from another trade war.

Recent Publication:

2026-01: PAER Outlook 2026

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